ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
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Sacks @ 01:00:31Right
politicsgovernment
As a result of the Mar-a-Lago raid, Republican support will rally around Donald Trump, making him very difficult to beat for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; the likely eventual outcomes are that he either wins the presidency again in 2024 or is incarcerated, with little middle ground, unless the FBI produces ironclad evidence of significant wrongdoing that derails his candidacy.
what the FBI has done with this raid, quite frankly, I think has polarized the outcomes. They are basically going to send Trump to the big House or the white House. I mean, because now the Republicans have rallied around Trump, I think he's going to be very, very hard to beat as the nominee in 2024 unless the FBI comes up with ironclad evidence to show that he did something significantly wrong.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sacks’ prediction has largely borne out.

  1. Republicans rallied around Trump after the Mar‑a‑Lago raid. Within days of the 8 August 2022 FBI search, Republican leaders attacked the FBI and DOJ and publicly defended Trump, framing him as a victim of a politicized investigation. (en.wikipedia.org) Polling showed GOP voters consolidating behind him: a Politico/Morning Consult poll found 58% of Republican primary voters preferred Trump as the 2024 nominee—his highest level of post‑presidency support—and 71% said he should run; an Economist/YouGov poll saw his favorability among Republicans jump from 45% to 57% in a week. (newsweek.com) This is consistent with Sacks’ claim that the raid spurred Republicans to rally around Trump.

  2. He became “very hard to beat” and won the 2024 GOP nomination. Through late 2023 and early 2024, Trump held dominant leads in Republican primary polling in key states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Georgia, often exceeding 55–60% support versus much lower numbers for rivals like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. (en.wikipedia.org) On March 12, 2024 he officially clinched the Republican nomination by surpassing the delegate threshold. (forbes.com) This matches Sacks’ forecast that, after the raid, Trump would be very difficult to defeat for the 2024 Republican nomination.

  3. Of the polarized outcomes Sacks named, the ‘White House’ branch occurred. In November 2024, Trump won the U.S. presidential election against Kamala Harris, securing 312 electoral votes to 226 and winning the popular vote 49.8% to 48.3%. (en.wikipedia.org) He took office again in January 2025. This is exactly the “White House” end of Sacks’ “big house or White House” framing.

  4. The ‘big house’ (incarceration) outcome has not occurred, and legal actions did not derail his candidacy. Trump was convicted in New York state court in May 2024 on 34 felony counts related to hush‑money payments, but in January 2025 he received an “unconditional discharge,” meaning no jail time, fines, or probation. (reuters.com) Other criminal cases—federal election‑obstruction and classified‑documents prosecutions—were dismissed or dropped after his 2024 victory, in part because DOJ policy bars prosecuting a sitting president and because a judge found the special counsel’s appointment invalid. (en.wikipedia.org) None of these proceedings prevented him from securing the nomination or winning the presidency, so the caveat Sacks added (“unless the FBI comes up with ironclad evidence…that derails his candidacy”) did not materialize in the sense of blocking his political comeback.

Taken together, the central elements of Sacks’ prediction—that the Mar‑a‑Lago raid would rally Republican support around Trump, make him very hard to beat for the 2024 GOP nomination, and lead to a polarized outcome where he either returns to the White House or faces serious legal ruin—have come true in the form of a strong rally, an easy nomination win, and an eventual return to the presidency rather than incarceration. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as right.