The prediction is about long‑term cancer incidence (~20 years after the February 2023 East Palestine, Ohio derailment). As of the current date (November 30, 2025), only about 2 years have passed since the incident, far short of the 20‑year timeframe implied by the quote ("we'll know in 20 years when a lot of people come down with cancer").

Epidemiological studies of cancer risk from environmental exposures (like vinyl chloride) typically require long latency periods (often decades) before a statistically clear increase in cancer incidence can be attributed to a specific event in a population. Current public reporting and early health assessments after the February 3, 2023 Norfolk Southern derailment and controlled burn of vinyl chloride in East Palestine focus on short‑term symptoms (respiratory irritation, headaches, rashes) and environmental contamination monitoring, not on long‑term cancer outcomes, which cannot yet be observed.

Because the prediction explicitly concerns what will be evident around 2043, and we are still in 2025, it is too early to determine whether there will be a "noticeably elevated" cancer rate attributable to this event. Therefore, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be evaluated.