1. What actually happened in the Tesla fee case

• The plaintiffs’ lawyers in Tornetta v. Musk asked for a fee in Tesla stock worth well over $5–7 billion.
• In March 2024, Delaware Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick rejected that multi‑billion‑dollar request and instead awarded about $345 million in fees (cash or stock) — a huge sum, but not “billions of dollars” as Sacks’ conditional referred to.
  • Associated Press and Bloomberg coverage of the decision report the fee at roughly $345 million, far below the multi‑billion request. (apnews.com)

So the explicit trigger in the normalized prediction — Delaware awarding the lawyers billions of dollars in fees — did not occur.

2. What happened to Delaware’s status as a corporate hub

Since the January 2024 ruling voiding Musk’s Tesla pay package, there has been a noticeable but still modest “DExit” trend:

• A Harvard Law Forum empirical study finds that from 2024 through mid‑2025, Delaware lost a net 11 large public companies (market cap > $250m) to reincorporations elsewhere (16 left, 5 moved in). (corpgov.law.harvard.edu)
• The same analysis notes Delaware still accounts for ~80–90% of IPO incorporations, with only a slight dip in its share in early 2025. (thegamingboardroom.com)
• A broader overview of the “Delaware corporate exodus” reports at least a dozen billion‑dollar public companies reincorporating away by late 2025, and an 8% drop in new business formations, but emphasizes there has been “no mass exodus”; defections are high‑profile but numerically small. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Delaware still hosts roughly two‑thirds of Fortune 500 companies and more than 2.1–2.2 million registered entities, and remains widely described by officials and legal experts as the premier corporate domicile, albeit under new competitive pressure from Texas and Nevada. (en.wikipedia.org)

So there is some material movement away from Delaware, but Delaware has not clearly lost its status as the leading U.S. state for incorporation; it is still dominant while facing increased competition and modest erosion at the margin.

3. Why the forecast is scored as ambiguous

The normalized prediction is explicitly conditional:

If the Delaware court awards the plaintiff’s lawyers billions in fees, then Delaware will suffer a significant loss of premier status, with a material shift of incorporations elsewhere.

• The antecedent (billions awarded) never happened; the court capped the fee at ~$345m, not billions. (apnews.com)
• Nonetheless, some exodus did occur after the Tesla ruling and broader Chancery decisions, but:
  • It is modest relative to Delaware’s enormous base, and Delaware clearly remains the primary incorporation venue.
  • The observed shifts are driven by a mix of factors (judicial scrutiny of founders, overall legal climate, tax and cost considerations), not specifically by a multi‑billion fee award that never materialized. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the key condition in Sacks’ forecast (a multi‑billion‑dollar fee award) did not occur, we cannot directly test his stated “if X then Y” claim. At the same time, Delaware’s dominance has been dented but not clearly “lost”, making it impossible to give a clean “right” or “wrong” verdict on the normalized consequence even by analogy.

Given those factors, the fairest evaluation is “ambiguous”: the conditional was never triggered, and the real‑world outcomes (modest DExit, continued Delaware dominance) do not let us definitively confirm or falsify the full, conditional prediction.