Evidence from late 2022 shows that the tech talent market was clearly less overheated than it had been in early 2022, matching Sacks’s directional and timing call.

By the end of 2022, multiple sources describe a marked shift from a candidate‑scarce “talent war” to a market with more job seekers and fewer postings. A 2024 Appcast benchmark report notes that at the end of 2022 and continuing through 2023, tech companies engaged in layoffs after a period of over‑hiring, producing a shrunken market with fewer job postings and “hordes of eager tech employees” chasing those jobs. (scribd.com) An executive‑search survey summarizing late‑2022 conditions similarly concludes that large‑scale tech layoffs increased the supply of candidates and “eased the shortage of recent years.” (kestria.com) Data from layoff trackers and news coverage show that mass tech layoffs began in the last quarter of 2022 and then intensified into 2023, with well over 150,000 tech workers laid off globally in 2022 alone, making it one of the worst years on record for the sector. (newstarget.com) A December 2022 ZipRecruiter/WSJ analysis (reported here via summary) explicitly describes the tech job market as slowing even though many laid‑off workers were still being rehired quickly—indicating a cooling from the prior frenzy rather than a collapse. (reddit.com)

On compensation and bargaining power, the environment was also less “hot” by late 2022. For example, Amazon’s stock had fallen roughly 50% from mid‑2021 to late 2022, leaving many employees 15–50% below target total compensation despite previously aggressive hiring and pay practices. (advisorfinder.com) Combined with hiring slowdowns and layoffs across Big Tech, this reduced candidates’ leverage for ever‑higher offers and multiple competing bids compared with the peak boom in early 2022.

Taken together, these contemporaneous data points show that within roughly six months of the May 2022 episode (by late 2022), the tech talent market had indeed cooled materially from its earlier red‑hot state, even though it remained relatively strong by historical standards. That aligns with Sacks’s prediction that “within the next six months, the talent market is not going to be as hot.”