Sacks argued in July 2023 that an already “huge crunch in late‑stage financing” would only get worse over the next 18 months.

Evidence shows a sharp worsening through late 2023, but then a meaningful rebound during 2024, especially for late‑stage and AI‑driven companies:

• By mid‑2023, the late‑stage market was already in crisis: TechCrunch reported that late‑stage/Series D+ valuations had collapsed (about 60% year‑over‑year and 33% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q2 2023) and that late‑stage deal counts were falling sharply, with late stage hit hardest in the downturn. PitchBook likewise noted that in 2023 the late stages saw valuation multiples and capital supply dwindle, and that Series D+ companies were waiting a record ~1.8 years between rounds. CB Insights’ 2023 report showed global late‑stage median deal size down more than 50% from 2021, with investors shying away from large late‑stage rounds.

  (Sources: TechCrunch on the late‑stage market in August 2023; PitchBook’s US VC market commentary on 2023; CB Insights State of Venture 2023.)

• Conditions did worsen into late 2023: Q4 2023 was described by CB Insights as the harshest quarter for global VC in six years, with funding and deal volume at multi‑year lows and late‑stage mega‑rounds especially scarce. Crunchbase similarly reported that Q4 2023 was the weakest quarter of the year in North America, with late‑stage dealmaking particularly muted.

  (Sources: CB Insights State of Venture 2023; Crunchbase year‑end 2023 funding review.)

• However, by 2024 the market began to recover rather than “only get worse.” PitchBook/NVCA’s data for 2024 show late‑stage deal value rising around 10% quarter‑over‑quarter early in 2024 and a “slight rebound” in late‑stage deals by Q4 2024, with median deal sizes trending upward. A TechCrunch analysis of PitchBook data reported that by the first half of 2024, median valuations for new early‑ and late‑stage deals in the U.S. had not only recovered from 2023 lows but reached all‑time highs. CB Insights’ 2024 report shows Q4 2024 global funding at a two‑year high, with 60% of that quarter’s capital coming from $100M+ mega‑rounds—mostly late‑stage deals. Reuters and other summaries of the 2024 PitchBook‑NVCA Venture Monitor note that total VC investment (especially in AI) grew significantly in 2024 vs. 2023, even though activity remained below 2021 levels and still skewed toward a few large winners.

  (Sources: PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor 2024 commentary; TechCrunch on 2024 valuation rebound; CB Insights State of Venture 2024; Reuters on 2024 U.S. VC and AI funding.)

• The environment in 2024 was still challenging—fundraising by VC funds was down, exits were constrained, and capital was highly concentrated in top firms and AI leaders—so a crunch persisted, particularly for non‑elite late‑stage companies. But key indicators like deal value, late‑stage mega‑round activity, and median late‑stage valuations improved vs. the 2023 trough and even vs. mid‑2023, contradicting the idea that financing conditions would only deteriorate throughout the entire 18‑month window.

Because late‑stage financing conditions first worsened but then clearly rebounded within the forecast horizon, Sacks’s directional claim that it was "only" going to get worse over the next 18 months does not hold. The prediction is therefore wrong.