I think you can win a few House races. I think that's doable. I don't think you can win a Senate race.
As of November 30, 2025, Elon Musk’s America/American Party has been announced and is organizing but has not yet contested its first federal election cycle.
– Musk launched the “America Party” (often described interchangeably as the American Party) in early July 2025 and has explicitly said it will target a small number of House and Senate seats in the 2026 midterm elections.(upi.com)
– Reporting and analysis consistently frame the party’s electoral impact as something that may occur in the 2026 midterms and possibly the 2028 cycle; there is no reporting of completed House or Senate races actually won or lost by America Party candidates yet.(financialexpress.com)
– The 2026 U.S. House and Senate elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 and are listed as ongoing/future, meaning no results exist as of late 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)
– Searches for 2025 special elections and FEC activity related to Musk’s party discuss organization, filings, and GOP concern, but not any concluded federal races with America Party nominees, let alone victories.(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
Because the party’s initial election cycles (starting with 2026) have not yet taken place, we cannot say whether Musk‑backed American Party candidates will win “a few House races” and zero Senate races. There is simply insufficient outcome data so far, so the prediction cannot yet be judged.