The prediction was conditional: if the war did not escalate into a larger war involving other great powers, Putin would occupy Ukraine for roughly a year, install a puppet or strongly pro‑Russian government in Kyiv, and then largely withdraw, similar to Georgia in 2008.

1. Condition check – no great‑power war: As of late 2025, NATO and major Western powers have supplied weapons, training, and aid to Ukraine but have explicitly stayed out as direct belligerents. NATO leadership has repeatedly stated that NATO is not a party to the conflict and has no plans to send combat troops into Ukraine, rejecting no‑fly zones precisely to avoid direct Russia–NATO war.(theguardian.com) This means the predicate condition (“if there’s no escalation into a larger war involving other great powers”) has effectively been met.

2. Duration and scale of Russian presence: Contrary to the “about one year” expectation, the large‑scale invasion that began on 24 February 2022 is still ongoing more than three and a half years later. The eastern front of the Russo‑Ukrainian war is explicitly described as ongoing and part of a conflict dated “24 February 2022 – present,” with active Russian offensives continuing into 2024–2025.(en.wikipedia.org) Multiple analyses estimate that Russia continues to occupy roughly one‑fifth of Ukraine’s territory as of 2025, including large parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.(aljazeera.com) This is a prolonged, large occupation, not a short in‑and‑out campaign.

3. Annexation vs. temporary occupation: Rather than preparing to leave after a year, Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) in September 2022 and Putin declared their residents to be Russian citizens “forever,” signaling an intent to hold the territory long‑term, not to withdraw.(aljazeera.com) This is the opposite of a Georgia‑style limited incursion followed by withdrawal.

4. Government in Kyiv: No Russian‑installed puppet or overtly pro‑Russian regime was ever established in Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has remained Ukraine’s president throughout the war, with Ukrainian political reporting and diplomatic travel in 2025 still referring to him as president and head of state.(en.wikipedia.org) Ukraine’s government continues to fight Russia and reject any territorial concessions, not act as a Moscow client.(theguardian.com)

Because (a) the condition of no direct great‑power war was met, yet (b) Russia did not withdraw after about a year, did annex and hold large territories, and did not install a puppet government in Kyiv, the prediction’s main scenario has clearly failed. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.