This prediction is explicitly counterfactual and conditional on a historical event that never occurred: the Supreme Court did not recognize a right to same‑sex marriage in the early 1990s. The actual historical path was:

• Same‑sex marriage recognition at the federal constitutional level came only with Obergefell v. Hodges in 2015.
• No federal constitutional amendment banning same‑sex marriage has ever been adopted; various proposed amendments (e.g., the Federal Marriage Amendment in the 2000s) failed to secure the necessary congressional supermajorities and state ratifications.

Because the claim is: "if the Supreme Court had ... in the early 1990s, we might have had a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage," it is not a falsifiable prediction about the actual world but a hypothetical about an alternative timeline. There is no empirical way to determine whether earlier judicial recognition would have triggered sufficient political support and ratification for such an amendment. Political counterfactuals of this kind cannot be settled conclusively by subsequent real‑world events.

Therefore, even though we know what did happen (no such amendment), we cannot infer what would have happened under the specified alternative conditions. The prediction remains inherently untestable and thus ambiguous, not right or wrong in the usual empirical sense.