As of November 30, 2025, the top U.S. federal marginal income tax rate on individuals is 37%, unchanged from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act structure that took effect in 2018, with an additional 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax applying to certain investment income for high earners (still far below 60% on its own). This is confirmed by current IRS tax rate tables and summaries of federal individual income tax brackets, which show 37% as the highest marginal bracket for 2024–2025.

Friedberg’s prediction was time‑bounded: he said that at some point within roughly the next 15–20 years from 2022 the top marginal federal tax rate on the wealthiest Americans would exceed 60%. The window he described runs approximately from 2022 to sometime between 2037 and 2042. As of late 2025:

• The specified period has not yet elapsed (we are only ~3 years into a 15–20 year horizon).
• The predicted event (a >60% federal top marginal rate) has not happened yet, but it still could happen within the remaining 12–17 years of his time window.

Because the deadline for the prediction is far in the future and the condition could still be met, we cannot say the prediction is right or wrong yet; it is simply too early to judge.