Friedberg @ 01:20:45Inconclusive
tech
Over the next several years (through the mid‑2020s), the primary strategic competition in space launch will be between the U.S. (via SpaceX’s Starship) and China (via Long March 9), with these two systems forming the core of the new space race.
So this will end up being kind of, I think, the big race over the next couple of yearsView on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s horizon is “the next couple of years” from the podcast date in March 2025, i.e., roughly into 2026–2027, so that full window has not elapsed yet.
On the facts:
- Starship has made multiple orbital‑class test flights in 2025 (Flights 7–11) and is clearly positioned as the U.S. flagship for future super‑heavy, fully reusable launch, but it remains in a test/early demonstration phase, not yet an established operational workhorse or the sole focus of U.S. strategic launch. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Long March 9 has been repeatedly redesigned into a Starship‑like, fully reusable methane/LOX super‑heavy rocket and is explicitly described as a Starship‑class competitor, but it is still on the drawing board, with a first flight currently targeted around 2033, well after the mid‑2020s. (en.wikipedia.org)
- China’s near‑term crewed‑lunar strategy for the 2020s instead centers on Long March 10 and existing Long March rockets, while Long March 9 is framed more as an infrastructure builder for 2030s lunar bases. (en.wikipedia.org)
- The current strategic launch landscape in the mid‑2020s is multi‑polar: besides SpaceX’s Falcon 9/Heavy and Starship tests, the U.S. has ULA’s Vulcan Centaur and Blue Origin’s operational New Glenn (with successful launches and an NSSL role), and Europe’s Ariane 6 has entered commercial service; these systems all feature in discussions of launch competition. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Geopolitical commentary broadly describes a new space race between the U.S. and China (sometimes including Russia), focused on lunar landings, bases, and even nuclear propulsion, rather than specifically and exclusively on a Starship‑vs‑Long‑March‑9 duel in the mid‑2020s. (houstonchronicle.com)
Because:
- we are only partway through the “next couple of years” window implied by the quote, and
- Long March 9 has not flown and is not yet central to current operational competition (its role is still prospective), we cannot yet definitively say whether Starship vs. Long March 9 will emerge as the primary strategic launch rivalry over the full horizon the predictor specified. Hence the status is inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.