The prediction specified that within ~9–12 months of mid‑May 2022 (i.e., by around May 2023) the U.S. would hit a consumer credit bubble that turned into a visible credit crisis, where people would broadly question whether consumers could afford their accumulated credit card and loan debt.

What actually happened by that time:

• The New York Fed’s Q1 2023 Household Debt and Credit report (covering data through March 31, 2023) shows total household debt at $17.05T, with credit card balances essentially flat that quarter at about $986B. Transitions of credit card balances into serious delinquency (90+ days late) did rise year‑over‑year (from 3.04% in Q1 2022 to 4.57% in Q1 2023), but overall serious delinquency rates remained low, and new foreclosures stayed very subdued. The Fed did not characterize conditions as a crisis. (newyorkfed.org)
• A February 16, 2023 CNBC summary of the New York Fed’s Q4 2022 data reported record consumer debt of $16.9T and noted that mortgage, auto, and credit‑card delinquencies had increased “though to still‑low levels,” again indicating rising stress but not a credit crisis. (cnbc.com)
• The Q2 2023 New York Fed report (released August 8, 2023, covering data through June 30) highlighted that credit‑card balances crossed $1T and delinquency transition rates were rising, but it framed this as gradual normalization from unusually low pandemic levels, not a full‑blown crisis in which consumer credit quality was collapsing. (newyorkfed.org)
• Commentary explicitly using “consumer credit bubble” language and warning that higher rates were threatening such a bubble appears later in 2023; even then, analysts describe elevated risks and rising defaults rather than a discrete, already‑materialized crisis by mid‑2023. (hva.group)
• The large, widely reported jump in serious credit‑card delinquencies—more than 50% year‑over‑year—shows up in full‑year 2023 data that the New York Fed and outlets like CNBC discussed in early 2024, again framed as increased financial stress, especially for younger and lower‑income borrowers, not as a systemic credit seizure akin to 2008. (cnbc.com)

By the end of the stated window (around May 2023), U.S. consumer credit conditions were tightening and deteriorating from unusually strong post‑pandemic levels, but there was no widely recognized consumer credit crisis centered on household inability to service credit card and loan debt. The more severe deterioration and “crisis”‑type language emerge later and are still typically described as elevated stress, not a discrete crash event. Therefore, judged against both the timing and the severity/"credit crisis" framing in the prediction, it did not come true.