Evidence shows this prediction was right.

Key facts:

• Pfizer and BioNTech submitted their EUA request to the U.S. FDA on November 20, 2020 for their COVID‑19 vaccine, BNT162b2.
• The FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) on December 11, 2020 for individuals 16 years and older.
• The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that healthcare personnel and residents of long‑term care facilities be in the initial Phase 1a priority group for vaccination.
• Vaccine shipments began within days of the EUA, and frontline healthcare workers started receiving doses in mid‑December 2020, which is clearly within Q4 2020 (October–December).

Representative sources:

• The FDA’s announcement of the EUA for the Pfizer‑BioNTech COVID‑19 vaccine on December 11, 2020, including the indication and timing of authorization.
• CDC/ACIP guidance naming healthcare personnel and long‑term care facility residents as the first priority group, and contemporaneous news reports showing initial vaccinations of healthcare workers beginning in mid‑December 2020 in the U.S.

Because doses were in fact available and distributed to healthcare and other frontline workers in December 2020, which is within Q4 2020, Friedberg’s prediction that “we could have doses that are available for distribution to healthcare workers and frontline people in Q4 of this year” was borne out by events.