Summary
Friedberg predicted in June 2020 that “there’s going to be a staged release of vaccines [for COVID‑19] that’ll probably … start in Q4 of this year.” Q4 2020 runs from October 1 to December 31, 2020.

What actually happened

• On December 11, 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued the first Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for a COVID‑19 vaccine, the Pfizer‑BioNTech (BNT162b2) mRNA vaccine, for use in individuals 16 years of age and older. This is an official authorization allowing distribution and use of the vaccine in the U.S. in December 2020 (Q4 2020).
• Shortly after, in December 2020, initial doses were shipped and administered in the U.S., marking the beginning of a staged rollout, starting with high‑priority groups (healthcare workers, nursing‑home residents) and expanding to broader populations in 2021.

Assessment versus prediction

• Timing: He predicted initial/staged release would start in Q4 2020 rather than only later in 2021. The first authorization and rollout did indeed begin in December 2020, which is within Q4 2020.
• Staged release: The rollout was explicitly phased by priority group and supply availability, matching his description of a “staged release.”

Because both the quarter (Q4 2020) and the staged nature of the rollout match what occurred, this prediction is right.