• Around the time of the November 19, 2022 episode, Alphabet’s market capitalization was roughly $1.1–1.2 trillion (end‑2022 value $1.145T). (companiesmarketcap.com)
• Since then, Alphabet’s market cap has risen dramatically. By December 29, 2023 it was about $1.76T, already more than $600B above its end‑2022 level, and by late November 2025 it is around $3.8–3.9T. (companiesmarketcap.com)
• However, the prediction was explicitly conditional: the $600B gain was said to follow if Alphabet "added that one disciplinary capability" of systematically shutting down non‑working or low‑return Other Bets projects.
  • In reality, Alphabet did not clearly implement a sweeping shutdown of Other Bets. While there were repeated cost‑cut efforts (e.g., Verily layoffs and product discontinuations, pressure to rein in Other Bets spending, and ongoing wind‑down of some non‑priority projects), major Other Bets like Waymo and Verily continue to operate and the segment still posts large operating losses (on the order of ~$1B per quarter in recent years). (investing.com)
• Analysts and news coverage attribute the huge valuation increase mainly to AI‑driven growth (Gemini models, TPUs), strong Search and YouTube ads, and Cloud performance, plus a favorable antitrust ruling, rather than to a discrete, transformative crackdown on Other Bets. (reuters.com)
• Because (1) the antecedent of the prediction—adding exactly the strict Other Bets discipline described—is not clearly met, and (2) the subsequent $600B+ market‑cap gain can be explained by other, better‑documented factors, we can’t determine whether Friedberg’s conditional "if they did X, market cap would go up by $600B" is what actually played out.

Given that enough time has passed but the key condition is not clearly satisfied and causality cannot be isolated, the status of this prediction is ambiguous rather than definitively right or wrong.