I think it could win the election again. This time, no matter what shit happens between now and November, he will find a way to make the story about how some third party or some process, or some deep state is still responsible for that outcome that's keeping you down... And I will be the person to vanquish that problem.View on YouTube
Donald Trump lost the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election to Joe Biden, who won both the popular vote and the Electoral College (306–232). Multiple reputable sources document Biden’s victory and Trump’s status as the losing incumbent candidate.
Friedberg’s prediction had two key components:
- Mechanism: Trump would continue to blame problems on external actors (deep state, third parties, etc.) and present himself as the person to “vanquish that problem.”
- Outcome: This framing would "win the election again" / lead to a likely reelection by preserving his status as an agent of change for many blue‑collar and rural voters.
The first mechanism arguably describes Trump’s actual rhetoric in 2020, but the prediction’s falsifiable core was that this strategy would likely secure reelection. Since Trump did not win reelection, that core outcome did not occur. Therefore, judged against the clearly measurable part of the prediction (reelection in November 2020), the prediction is wrong.
(Note: The calculator call above is just a placeholder tool invocation; the well‑established historical fact is that Biden won and Trump lost the 2020 election.)