Donald Trump did not win the November 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election. Major news organizations and the official Electoral College count confirm that Joe Biden won the presidency, securing 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, and a popular vote margin of over 7 million votes. Therefore, Friedberg’s ~70% probability that Trump would win turned out to be incorrect.

Key confirmations of Biden’s victory:

• The Electoral College certified Joe Biden’s win with 306 electoral votes versus 232 for Donald Trump.
• News outlets and official tallies report Biden winning the popular vote by several million votes, and being inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021.

Because the predicted outcome (Trump winning) did not occur, the prediction is evaluated as wrong.