Friedberg @ 01:17:39Right
marketstech
Chinese technology equities (as represented by broad Chinese tech ETFs and large caps like Alibaba) will significantly appreciate in 2025, outperforming many other equity sectors, assuming macro conditions are not severely adverse.
So I went with Chinese tech stocks. Chinese tech ETFs... these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.
Explanation
Multiple broad Chinese tech / internet benchmarks had strong double‑digit gains in 2025 and clearly outperformed many other equity sectors.
- The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), a widely used proxy for Chinese tech/internet stocks, shows a YTD return of 35.2% (NAV) as of Oct 31, 2025.【1search4】 A separate performance commentary notes KWEB had returned about 49–50% year‑to‑date later in 2025, highlighting a very strong run.【3search2】
- Broader commentary on Chinese tech confirms a major rally: Axios reports Chinese tech stocks up over 44% year‑to‑date from their April lows, outpacing leading U.S. tech stocks and the “Magnificent 7.”【3news13】 The Financial Times likewise notes the Hang Seng Tech Index entered a bull market in 2025, rising about 25% from its January low and beating the Nasdaq 100, with large caps like Alibaba up ~43% and Xiaomi ~34%.【3news14】
- In contrast, the S&P 500 total‑return YTD as of Oct 31, 2025 is about 17.4%,【2search2】 and the U.S. Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)—the best major U.S. sector—shows a 29.9% YTD return over the same period.【2search1】 A sector breakdown for the S&P 500 shows most other sectors (healthcare, financials, materials, real estate, energy, etc.) with mid‑single to low‑20s YTD returns, or less, all below KWEB’s mid‑30s+ YTD gains.【3search0】
Taken together, these data show that broad Chinese tech equities (as represented by ETFs like KWEB and indices like Hang Seng Tech) appreciated significantly in 2025 and outperformed the S&P 500 and the majority of U.S. equity sectors, including most non‑tech sectors. That matches the normalized prediction that Chinese tech stocks would have “a pretty good run” and beat many other sectors, conditional on reasonably supportive macro conditions. Therefore, the prediction is best judged as right.