Available data conflicts with the timing part of Friedberg’s claim but is not sufficient to evaluate the full 10‑year forecast.

What he predicted (Oct 2022)
He said we were “probably at peak capital being managed in venture funds right now” and that this capital would “likely decline for the next decade.” Interpreted as in the normalized version, this means:

1. 2022 was roughly the cyclical peak in venture-capital assets under management (AUM).
2. Over roughly 2022–2032, total VC AUM would generally decline rather than grow.

What has happened so far
Independent data suggest that 2022 has not been the high-water mark (at least so far):

• Preqin reported global venture capital AUM of about $2.45 trillion in March 2022.(technode.global)
• The Preqin 2025 Global Report: Venture Capital shows VC AUM reaching about $3.1 trillion by Q1 2024, a substantial increase from 2022, even though fundraising and exits have slowed.(crowdfundinsider.com)
• A separate 2024 review of the U.S. VC market cites $1.3 trillion in U.S. VC AUM in 2024, indicating continued growth in capital under management despite a sharp drop in new fundraising and more difficult exit conditions.(namaventures.com)

These figures imply that capital managed in venture funds has continued to rise since 2022, so the narrow statement that “we’re probably at peak capital right now” has already been contradicted by later data.

Why the overall verdict is still “inconclusive”
However, Friedberg’s broader forecast concerned a decade‑long cycle (through ~2032) in which VC capital would generally decline rather than grow. While the early years (2022–2024) show that AUM kept increasing and therefore do not support an immediate prolonged decline, they also do not rule out a scenario in which:

• AUM rolls over later in the decade, and
• By 2032, total VC AUM is lower than in 2022, or the overall 2022–2032 path is net‑downward.

Because we are only about three years into a ten‑year horizon, and AUM levels and macro conditions can change materially over the remaining period, we cannot yet say definitively whether the full decade‑long prediction (about the long‑run direction of VC AUM) is right or wrong. The early evidence challenges his claim that 2022 was the peak, but does not conclusively falsify the 2022–2032 directional call.

Therefore, the appropriate classification as of late 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”, with the caveat that interim data so far run against his assertion that 2022 marked the peak in venture capital AUM.