Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
economygovernment
Between roughly 2032 and 2037, the United States will experience a major economic and fiscal crisis driven by an unsustainable combination of federal debt levels, entitlement obligations, and defense spending.
I'm I think it's the most kind of scary set of facts and conditions that we're getting set up for, kind of a major crisis 10 to 15 years from now, because you can't afford all the debt that we've taken on as a country, as well as the entitlement as well as defense. And so something's got to give.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction is about a future period: roughly 2032–2037. As of today (November 30, 2025), that window has not begun, let alone finished, so we cannot yet evaluate whether the U.S. will in fact experience a major economic and fiscal crisis of the type described.

While the U.S. currently has high and rising federal debt and large projected obligations for entitlements (Social Security, Medicare) and defense spending, those are risk factors, not confirmation that a specific crisis has occurred in the stated timeframe. Any judgment about whether this prediction is right or wrong must wait until at least the early 2030s.

Because the predicted period is still in the future, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”.