ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 01:02:16Wrong
markets
After the WarnerMedia merger closes (i.e., the Discovery–WarnerMedia combination announced in 2021), the combined company’s equity will become a top-performing, highly attractive media stock, powered by an extremely competitive streaming content library versus Disney.
When that WarnerMedia deal gets done. I think that's the juggernaut stock you want to own. It's gonna have an incredible library to compete with Disney.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction that the post‑merger Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) equity would be a “juggernaut stock you want to own” has clearly not come true.

  • Stock performance: The Discovery–WarnerMedia merger closed in April 2022 and WBD began trading on April 11, 2022. (en.wikipedia.org) Since then, Warner Bros. Discovery’s total shareholder return has been described as “a disaster,” with the stock down over 70% from post‑merger levels and massively underperforming peers such as Netflix and Disney, as well as the broader market. (koalagains.com) Reuters reported in 2024 that WBD had lost more than $40 billion in market value since the merger, with its market cap a fraction of pre‑merger expectations. (investing.com) This is the opposite of a top‑performing or “juggernaut” media stock.

  • Business results and investor perception: Since the merger, WBD has posted large net losses every year (e.g., approximately -$7.4B in 2022, -$3.1B in 2023, and -$11.3B in 2024, largely from write‑downs and restructuring), and its operating margins have been weak or negative, in sharp contrast to more profitable peers like Netflix and healthier-margin competitors like Disney and Comcast. (koalagains.com) Analysts and financial press coverage consistently frame WBD as a challenged turnaround story rather than a must‑own winner.

  • Streaming library vs. Disney: On the content side, HBO/Max plus Warner’s film/TV catalog do give WBD a strong library, and it has grown streaming subscribers (e.g., over 120M–130M global subs by 2025 and meaningful positive streaming EBITDA). (benzinga.com) However, Disney remains larger in total streaming subs and stronger in key family/IP franchises; and market data typically compares Disney and WBD as struggling legacy media players trying to catch Netflix, not as WBD surpassing Disney on content or stock performance.

Because the central, falsifiable part of the prediction was that the merged company’s equity would be a standout, “juggernaut” media stock—and instead it has severely destroyed shareholder value and trailed peers—the prediction is best classified as wrong, even though the company does possess a competitive content library.