Available data around early 2024 shows increased concentration in both venture capital and broader private markets, but nowhere near the level Friedberg predicted, and certainly not concentrated in only 3–4 firms.

In U.S. venture capital, VC Cafe’s analysis (reported by Forbes) found that in 2024 the top 30 VC firms captured about 75% of all U.S. VC fundraising, while just nine firms captured 50%; Andreessen Horowitz alone represented a bit over 11% of total VC funds raised. (forbes.com) Similarly, SVB’s 2025 State-of-the-Markets analysis of Preqin and PitchBook data shows that over the 2023–2024 period, the top 10 VC firms captured only about 22% of global venture fundraising, indicating that capital is spread across dozens of managers, not dominated by 3–4. (slideshare.net) Other VC industry summaries likewise describe top 5 firms at ~40% and top 10 at just above 50% of global VC funding, again far from 80% for three or four firms. (wifitalents.com)

In broader private markets (private equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure, etc.), the pattern is similar: concentrated but still dispersed across many firms. Private Equity International’s PEI 300 data shows the top 10 private‑equity firms account for only about a quarter of total capital raised by the largest 300 managers over recent five‑year windows, not a dominant majority. (privateequityinternational.com) A 2025 analysis of global private markets notes that the top 10 PE firms raised roughly 22% of fundraising among the top 300 managers, and that even the six very largest PE houses together raised about 60% of capital in early 2024—still far short of 80% and involving more than 3–4 firms. (linkedin.com) An industry CEO interviewed by the Financial Times even forecasts that in future “50 to 100” large diversified private‑capital firms might capture 90% of capital—implicitly acknowledging that, as of the mid‑2020s, the market is far from being dominated by only three or four players. (ft.com)

Given these figures, by early 2024 neither venture capital nor the broader private‑markets universe had anything close to 80% of aggregate deployed capital coming from just three or four firms. The best evidence instead shows that dozens of managers share meaningful market share, with the top 3–4 responsible for only a small fraction of global deployment. Therefore Friedberg’s prediction did not come true.