ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 01:16:24Right
politicstech
Within the coming years after January 2023, some form of major structural transaction for TikTok in the US—such as a spinout, sale, or similar ownership/oversight restructuring to US-controlled entities—will occur, rather than TikTok continuing indefinitely under its existing ByteDance-controlled structure in the US market.
Okay, well, look, something like this is going to happen, so it'll be interesting to watch.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of late 2025, the U.S. has in fact forced a major structural change in TikTok’s U.S. operations that matches what Friedberg anticipated.

Key points:

  • In April 2024, Congress passed and President Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which explicitly targets TikTok/ByteDance and requires divestiture from foreign‑adversary control for the app to remain in the U.S. market. This law conditions TikTok’s continued U.S. operation on a structural ownership change rather than allowing the status quo indefinitely. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • After legal challenges, the law’s core requirement that ByteDance divest TikTok’s U.S. operations was upheld, and major app‑store and hosting restrictions started to bite in January 2025, making continued operation under the old ByteDance‑controlled structure untenable. (investopedia.com)

  • On September 25, 2025, the White House issued an executive order approving a “qualified divestiture” plan under that act. The plan creates a new U.S.-based joint venture to operate TikTok’s U.S. app, majority‑owned and controlled by U.S. persons, with ByteDance and affiliates holding less than 20%. The order states that the new joint venture will control the algorithms, content‑moderation decisions, and U.S. user data, which must be stored in a U.S. cloud environment and subject to intensive monitoring by U.S. security partners. (whitehouse.gov)
    This is exactly the sort of spinout/sale/oversight restructuring to U.S.-controlled entities that the prediction described.

  • Reporting in November 2025 further details that ByteDance is in the process of divesting about 80% of its U.S. assets, with a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake expected to hold a majority stake, and that TikTok’s recommendation algorithm for U.S. users will be retrained and monitored under U.S. supervision. (reuters.com)

While the transaction is still being implemented, the decisive policy path and framework agreement mean that TikTok’s U.S. operations are clearly moving away from the original ByteDance‑controlled structure toward a U.S.-controlled entity. That outcome aligns with Friedberg’s claim that “something like this is going to happen,” so the prediction is best classified as right.