Evidence since early 2022 shows that some parts of the prediction happened (EBV‑targeted MS trials did expand), but the key elements Friedberg described did not.

1. What the prediction implied

   • On the pod, Friedberg talks specifically about giving people a T‑cell therapy to eliminate EBV so they can stop all future need for MS treatment, and says “that’s the clinical trials that will start now.” The normalized version summarizes this as new EBV‑targeted trials in MS, including T‑cell therapies, to see if clearing/suppressing EBV removes the need for ongoing MS drugs.

2. EBV‑specific T‑cell therapy in MS was already in trials before 2022

   • Autologous EBV‑specific T‑cell therapy in progressive MS was reported in small phase I studies years earlier (e.g., Khanna group), showing safety and some sustained clinical improvements. (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
   • Atara’s allogeneic EBV‑specific T‑cell product ATA188 and its Phase 2 EMBOLD trial in progressive MS began well before 2022 (the EMBOLD study launched in 2017 and was already enrolling and analyzing data by 2021–early 2022). (multiplesclerosisnewstoday.com)
   • In November 2023, Atara announced EMBOLD failed its primary endpoint and indicated it anticipated stopping the study, rather than expanding into new T‑cell trials. (neurologylive.com)
   • I find no evidence of any new EBV‑specific T‑cell clinical trial in MS being initiated after the January 2022 EBV–MS paper; existing T‑cell programs either pre‑dated the paper or are still at preclinical/"intention to study" stage (e.g., Tevogen Bio’s 2022 announcement of plans to develop EBV‑specific CD8+ T cells for MS, without a registered MS trial). (tevogen.com)

3. What did start after 2022: antivirals and vaccines, not new T‑cell trials

   • Several new EBV‑targeted trials in MS have been initiated or registered since 2023–2025, but they use antivirals or vaccines, not T‑cell therapies:
     • STOP‑MS: a Phase III multi‑arm, multi‑stage trial in progressive MS testing repurposed antivirals spironolactone and famciclovir as anti‑EBV therapies, explicitly designed to reduce EBV activity and then test impact on disability progression. It is listed as recruiting as of mid‑2025. (mstrials.org.au)
     • FIRMS‑EBV: a Phase 3 trial in relapsing‑remitting MS testing tenofovir alafenamide vs spironolactone vs placebo for fatigue, specifically targeting lytic EBV; prospectively registered in April 2024 with recruitment planned for 2025. (anzctr.org.au)
     • Horizon trial (Moderna): a Phase 2 trial in recently diagnosed MS patients using an EBV vaccine to modulate EBV and assess effects on new MS disease activity/relapses; recruiting in the UK. (annerowlingclinic.org)
   • These clearly show that the 2022 Science paper strengthening EBV–MS causality was followed by new EBV‑targeted MS trials, but they are not new T‑cell therapy trials.

4. Trials are not testing “eliminate MS treatment” the way he described

   • In FIRMS‑EBV, both antivirals are explicitly given as an add‑on to participants’ usual disease‑modifying therapies (DMTs), which they continue taking as prescribed; the endpoint is improvement in fatigue, not withdrawal of MS drugs. (anzctr.org.au)
   • STOP‑MS similarly adds antivirals on top of standard care to see if reducing EBV activity slows progressive disability; its design does not center on stopping all other MS treatment. (mstrials.org.au)
   • The Horizon vaccine trial tests whether vaccination against EBV reduces new MS disease activity, again as an additional intervention rather than a protocolized replacement for existing MS therapies. (annerowlingclinic.org)
   • No current EBV‑targeted trial in MS is designed around the scenario Friedberg sketched—clearing EBV with T‑cell therapy and then discontinuing all MS medications to see if they’re no longer needed.

5. Why this makes the prediction wrong overall

   • The core, differentiating part of Friedberg’s prediction is that new clinical trials of EBV‑targeted T‑cell therapies in MS would start soon after the EBV–MS causality paper, specifically to test whether clearing EBV could let patients stop MS drugs.
   • What we actually see by late 2025 is:
     • New EBV‑focused MS trials with antivirals and vaccines, yes.
     • No new EBV‑specific T‑cell MS trials launched in this period; existing T‑cell trial programs were already underway and one major program (ATA188) is being wound down after a negative Phase 2 result. (neurologylive.com)
     • None of the new EBV‑targeted trials are structured to test discontinuation of all other MS therapy.
   • Nearly four years have passed since the January 2022 paper, so this is not a "too early to tell" issue; the clinical development path has clearly favored antivirals/vaccines rather than new T‑cell trials in MS.

Because the specific forecast about new T‑cell therapy trials starting to test whether clearing EBV can replace ongoing MS treatment has not materialized, even though broader EBV‑targeted MS trials have, the prediction is best classified as wrong overall.