ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:45:35Inconclusive
marketstech
From roughly 2021 through at least the early 2030s (and possibly into the early 2040s), the disruption of large, old‑line industrial public companies by new technology-driven firms (software, automation, ESG-focused investing, life sciences, etc.) will continue and likely accelerate, rather than this period representing a peak bubble.
it may kind of be the beginning of a continuing disruption cycle that we're going to see kind of persist for the next decade or two, especially as more of the old school industrial businesses, which make up a bulk of that market cap, start to get disrupted not just by software, but also by automation, by ESG angle investing, by, um, life sciences and all these other kind of technologies that and these interests, these market interests that are going to disrupt those industries. I think we could even see an acceleration from here.View on YouTube
Explanation

It’s too early to definitively judge a prediction whose explicit horizon is “the next decade or two” (into the 2030s–2040s) based on only ~4 years of data since 2021.

That said, developments so far broadly align with his thesis that tech‑driven firms would keep disrupting large incumbent public companies rather than 2021 being a final peak bubble:

  • The U.S. equity market has become more dominated by a handful of tech and tech‑adjacent giants. The “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla) now account for about one‑third to 37% of the S&P 500’s market cap, versus roughly 12% in 2015—an unprecedented level of concentration—and have massively outperformed the rest of the index. (finance.yahoo.com)
  • Nvidia, whose business is central to AI and automation, became the first company to hit about a $4T market cap in 2025 and alone represents around 7% of the S&P 500; U.S. tech as a whole now commands over 30% of S&P 500 market value, far above its share of current earnings, reflecting large forward bets on continued tech disruption. (apnews.com)
  • Automation in “old‑line” sectors has accelerated: industrial robot installations roughly doubled globally over the past decade, with 542,000 robots installed in 2024 and total operating stock near 4.7 million, and multiple industry forecasts project industrial robotics markets growing at double‑digit CAGRs well into the 2030s as manufacturing, automotive, electronics, and other traditional industries automate. (automation.com)

At the same time, there are signs of froth and bubble‑like behavior: tech and AI leaders trade at historically rich valuations, and commentators increasingly warn of an “AI bubble” or overconcentration risk in a small group of mega‑caps. (washingtonpost.com) This leaves open the possibility that what we’re seeing now could still resolve into a classic boom‑bust rather than a decades‑long disruption cycle.

Because the prediction’s main falsifiable claim is about persistence through at least the early 2030s, and we are only partway through that window, the fairest judgment as of late 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”, even though current trends are directionally supportive of Friedberg’s view rather than contradicting it.