ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:41:20Inconclusive
techai
By the end of 2026, Huawei (using non‑publicly discussed Chinese lithography technology deployed in new mainland China fabs) will publicly announce and begin producing AI/accelerator chips at high volume and relatively low cost that are competitive with leading Western chips (e.g., Nvidia-class accelerators) for at least some defined market applications (such as specific AI workloads).
my early prediction for 2026 is Huawei ... where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can create at a very low cost, probably very high volume, and probably in reasonably short order chips that can start to rival for certain market applications, chips that might be expensive and long.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction’s deadline is “by the end of 2026”, so as of the current date (30 November 2025) there is still over a year left for it to play out.

Public information shows that:

  • Huawei already designs and sells Ascend AI accelerators (e.g., 910B/910C) produced by SMIC on a 7 nm process. These chips are used in large clusters, are priced below Nvidia’s top GPUs in China, and are positioned as competitive—though generally behind Nvidia’s latest H100/B200 in absolute performance and efficiency—for certain AI workloads.(tomshardware.com)
  • Huawei and SMIC are constrained to older nodes (around 7 nm) because they lack access to EUV lithography; reporting indicates their next Ascend generations are still planned on 7 nm-class tech through at least 2026, with ongoing yield and capacity challenges.(fortune.com)
  • Chinese equipment maker SiCarrier has publicly described DUV multi‑patterning techniques that could enable 5 nm‑class production without EUV, and says its tools are used by SMIC and in collaboration with Huawei—but these techniques are openly discussed in industry reporting, not secret or undisclosed.(reuters.com)
  • Huawei is reportedly involved in a “secret” network of fabs and proxy firms to expand domestic chip manufacturing under U.S. sanctions, but articles describing this network do not provide evidence of a novel, non‑public lithography technology already deployed in volume production.(bloomberg.com)

So, while parts of the prediction are partially aligned with current reality (Huawei producing domestic AI accelerators at significant scale that are somewhat competitive and cheaper for some markets), the specific claim about a not publicly discussed Chinese lithography technology being deployed in new mainland fabs is not supported by current public evidence, and the time window for the overall prediction has not yet closed.

Because the deadline (end of 2026) lies in the future and there is still ample time for events to change—either toward confirming or refuting the claim—the outcome cannot yet be definitively judged. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early).