ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:34:53Wrong
politicseconomy
As part of the eventual settlement of the Ukraine–Russia war (expected within several months of September 10, 2022), Western countries and the EU will commit a very large financial package to Ukraine, Ukraine will agree to let Russia retain some captured regions/assets while Russia withdraws from others, and Western sanctions on Russia will be partially lifted to a degree sufficient for Russian gas flows to Europe to resume and for European economies to restart normal activity.
Ukraine? We are going to have to plow so much money into the Ukraine to make them feel okay about what we're going to ask them to do in order to remove, um, or to end the crisis... my guess is a huge amount of money from the West and EU going into Ukraine... sanctions are partially lifted, but they're partially lifted enough to get the flow of gas going and to get the economy turning again.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction tied several specific outcomes to an 'eventual settlement' of the Ukraine–Russia war within a few months of 10 September 2022: (1) a peace deal in that timeframe, (2) Ukraine accepting loss of some occupied territory, (3) partial lifting of Western sanctions sufficient to restart Russian gas flows to Europe and normalize European economies, and (4) large Western/EU financial support to Ukraine.

In reality, by late November 2025 the war is still ongoing with no final peace settlement; recent reporting describes it as a nearly four‑year war with active combat, and notes that current U.S.-backed peace proposals are only draft frameworks, not concluded agreements. (apnews.com) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to reject territorial concessions in peace plans, insisting that Russia must be held accountable and that occupied areas not be legitimized. (time.com)

On sanctions and energy, the EU has repeatedly expanded, not relaxed, its Russia sanctions, adopting a 19th sanctions package in October 2025 that further targets Russian energy (including future bans on Russian LNG) while broader EU policy aims to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports entirely by 2028. (finance.ec.europa.eu) Russian gas flows to Europe have collapsed rather than returning to pre‑war norms: Nord Stream pipelines were largely destroyed in 2022 and remain offline, and Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine stopped completely on 1 January 2025; EU data show Russian gas supply to the EU falling from about 150 bcm in 2021 (around 45% of EU gas) to 43 bcm in 2023 (about 15%). (cnbc.com)

It is true that Western countries, especially the EU, have committed very large financial assistance packages to Ukraine, totaling over €130 billion in economic, humanitarian and military support by the end of 2024 and creating multi‑year facilities worth up to €50 billion for 2024–27. (op.europa.eu) However, this aid has been provided while the war continues, not as part of a settlement in which Ukraine trades territory and the West relaxes sanctions to restore Russian gas flows.

Because the central, time‑bound scenario Friedberg described — near‑term peace settlement with Ukrainian territorial concessions, partial sanction rollback, and restored Russian gas to Europe — has not occurred and in several respects the opposite has happened, the prediction is best classified as wrong overall, despite correctly anticipating large Western financial support.