Friedberg @ 00:14:30Wrong
techmarkets
Google will appeal the Epic v. Google Play Store antitrust verdict and is likely to win on appeal, resulting in no massive change to Google Play Store business practices or economics (including its overall Play Store revenue) as a consequence of this case.
Google's going to appeal. They feel very strongly they'll win an appeal. And the markets obviously did a, you know, voted with the fact that Google's stock didn't really move anywhere. And the market said, hey, this isn't this is a nothing burger. Google's 40 billion in annual Play Store revenue. Worst case scenario like you said, if it gets impacted by $2 billion, that's 2 billion out of 300 overall doesn't really matter. And likely they're going to win on appeal anyway. So you know, I think the saga will continue, but I think Google's got a pretty strong case on appeal. And it seems like, you know, it's going to be very hard to kind of see a massive change in App Store behavior as a result of this case, even though it's been hyped up to be that.View on YouTube
Explanation
Key elements of Friedberg’s prediction were:
- Google would likely win on appeal of the Epic v. Google Play Store antitrust verdict.
- As a result, there would be no massive change to Play Store business practices or economics ("nothing burger").
What actually happened:
- Google did appeal, but on July 31, 2025 the Ninth Circuit unanimously affirmed the 2023 jury verdict and the permanent injunction, rejecting Google’s arguments and upholding findings that Google unlawfully maintained monopoly power in Android app distribution and in‑app billing. (cnbc.com)
- The district court’s October 7, 2024 injunction (three years, Nov 1, 2024–Nov 1, 2027) requires Google to:
- Allow developers to steer users to alternative billing and distribution channels and provide links/info about them.
- Stop conditioning benefits on Play Store exclusivity or preinstallation deals that crowd out rival stores.
- Permit rival Android app stores to access the Play Store’s app catalog and to be distributed through the Play Store itself. These are major structural changes to how the Play Store operates. (caselaw.findlaw.com)
- On appeal, the Ninth Circuit specifically upheld this injunctive relief, confirming that these reforms were a valid remedy for Google’s antitrust violations. (law.justia.com)
- Google sought to pause or narrow the injunction, but the Ninth Circuit denied Google’s request for a stay pending further appeals, and set the injunction on course to take effect, with implementation deadlines into late 2025 (e.g., an October 29, 2025 deadline to open the store, allow alternative billing, and let developers set their own prices). (reuters.com)
- By late 2025, Epic announced that the Epic Games Store will be available within Google Play, and reporting describes the ruling as potentially reshaping the Android app ecosystem. (androidcentral.com)
- In November 2025, Epic and Google announced a proposed settlement under which Google would reduce its standard Play Store cut to around 9–20% and formally allow third‑party stores like Epic’s as recognized app stores on Android worldwide—changes significant enough that Judge Donato questioned whether the deal adequately addresses the jury’s liability findings. (en.wikipedia.org)
These outcomes directly contradict the prediction: Google did not win the key appeal, and the case has already driven—or is in the process of driving—substantial changes to both Play Store business practices (catalog sharing, rival stores within Play, alternative billing, anti‑steering, limits on exclusive deals) and economics (lower take rates in the proposed settlement). That is the opposite of a "nothing burger" with “no massive change.”
Therefore, the prediction is wrong.