Why this prediction is wrong

The prediction: “By May 2021, approximately 70% of the U.S. population will have been immunized with a COVID-19 vaccine.” (interpreted as ~70% of the entire U.S. population having received COVID-19 vaccination by the end of May 2021).

What actually happened (using CDC data):

• As of May 31, 2021, CDC data show roughly:
  • About 50–51% of the total U.S. population had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
  • About 40–41% of the total U.S. population was fully vaccinated (two doses of mRNA or one dose of J&J).

Multiple summaries of CDC data and contemporaneous reporting show that by late May / early June 2021 the U.S. had reached roughly 50% of the total population with at least one dose, not 70%, and that the Biden administration’s 70% goal by early July 2021 was explicitly for adults, not the whole population; even that adult-target milestone was reached only later in early August 2021, not by May.

Given that:

• The prediction explicitly refers to “70% of Americans” by May 2021.
• Actual vaccination uptake by May 31, 2021 was only about 50% with at least one dose and ~40% fully vaccinated for the total U.S. population.

The prediction substantially overshot the real outcome.

Conclusion: The prediction that about 70% of the U.S. population would be immunized with a COVID-19 vaccine by May 2021 is wrong based on CDC-reported coverage levels by that date.