Friedberg’s statement was explicitly conditional: he said that if the DWAC–Trump Media SPAC “actually does de‑SPAC at this valuation,” then Trump would not run again because he’d have about “$20 billion” of equity value in the new media business.(podscripts.co)

What actually happened:

• The DWAC–Trump Media & Technology Group merger did not close at anything close to a ~$20B equity valuation. When trading in DJT began on March 26, 2024, public estimates of the company’s market cap were in the mid–single‑digit billions (roughly $2.7–9.5B depending on share-count assumptions), and Trump’s stake was valued in the mid‑single‑digit billions, not ~$20B.(cnbc.com)
• The merger itself was completed in late March 2024.(accessnewswire.com)
• Separately, Trump did run for president again: he announced his 2024 candidacy on November 15, 2022, later secured the Republican nomination in July 2024, won the November 6, 2024 election, and was inaugurated again on January 20, 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)

However, Friedberg’s prediction was of the form: If (deal closes at ~20B valuation), then (Trump won’t run again). Because the antecedent never occurred — the deal closed but at far lower valuations than the ~$20B level he was talking about — we can’t directly observe the world in which his condition is satisfied. The truth of the counterfactual “if Trump had actually gotten a ~$20B equity value from this SPAC, he would not have run again” therefore cannot be determined from real‑world outcomes.

Given that the condition for the prediction was not met, and the statement is about a hypothetical scenario, the forecast cannot be cleanly scored as right or wrong. It is best classified as ambiguous: enough time has passed, but whether the prediction would have held under its stated condition is inherently unresolvable.