As of November 30, 2025, there is still no clearly viable (i.e., nationally competitive) third party that has emerged and rapidly solidified in a way that would test Friedberg’s claim.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. created “We the People” party organizations in several states in January 2024 mainly as ballot‑access vehicles for his 2024 presidential bid, not as a fully structured, lasting national third party with defined governance and platform; Kennedy subsequently dropped out of the 2024 race in August 2024, and the effort did not mature into a stable large‑scale party. (en.wikipedia.org) No Labels pursued a centrist 2024 presidential “unity ticket,” gained ballot access in many states, but then abandoned the presidential effort in April 2024 and later refocused on state‑level activity in Arizona (eventually rebranding its Arizona arm as the Arizona Independent Party for 2026), again indicating something still in flux rather than a fully coalesced national third party. (en.wikipedia.org)

Friedberg’s prediction is explicitly about what happens over a number of years once a viable third party emerges. Less than two years have passed since the prediction (December 29, 2023 → November 30, 2025), and no clearly viable national third party has yet formed and fully stabilized, so there is not enough elapsed time or clear empirical case to determine whether his multi‑year coalescence forecast is correct or incorrect. Hence, the prediction is inconclusive (too early to tell).