Evidence shows Friedberg was broadly right about large energy-price spikes, but wrong about the scale of downstream damage he predicted for winter 2022–2023.

• Energy prices did spike to “multiples over normal.” European gas prices peaked around September 2022 at roughly 25× their level two years earlier, and forward prices for 2023 distribution were estimated at about 7× pre‑crisis norms.(de.wikipedia.org) This confirms the “massive” price increase part of the forecast.
• However, the feared systemic breakdown over winter 2022–2023 did not occur. A very mild winter, aggressive demand reduction, rapid diversification away from Russian gas (LNG imports, more Norwegian supply), and policy support meant Europe avoided gas shortages and blackouts. Multiple post‑mortems describe that winter as having gone “without any issues” from a system‑stability standpoint, with major supply disruptions avoided and gas storage staying comfortable.(thenationalnews.com)
• The broader European economy bent but did not break that winter. Euro‑area GDP still grew 0.1% in Q4 2022, and 2022 growth was about 3.5%, meaning the eurozone avoided a winter recession despite high energy costs.(dw.com) There was serious cost‑of‑living pressure and protests, but not the kind of widespread “critical failure across the economy” implied by the quote.
• Currencies weakened but did not experience a “critical failure.” The euro did fall below dollar parity in mid‑2022, with analysts explicitly tying part of the move to the energy shock and recession fears,(breitbart.com) but it remained a fully functioning major currency and later recovered; there was no collapse or loss of convertibility.
• Debt markets were stressed but remained orderly. Sovereign spreads widened enough that the ECB created the Transmission Protection Instrument in July 2022, explicitly to backstop “unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics” in bond markets.(ecb.europa.eu) In practice, TPI was never activated; later ECB and central‑bank commentary notes that its mere announcement helped keep transmission smooth, and by 2024–2025 peripheral spreads were back near or below pre‑crisis levels, not in a state of systemic failure.(bcl.lu)

So while the price‑spike part of the prediction was accurate, the core claim that those gas cuts would during winter 2022–2023 cause “critical failure… across the economy, across the currencies, across debt markets” did not materialize. Europe experienced severe stress and lasting economic damage in some countries (notably Germany), but no generalized collapse of its currency or debt markets, and no systemic winter breakdown, making the prediction overall wrong.