Friedberg @ 01:36:59Inconclusive
marketstech
Friedberg concurs that over the next five years, a portfolio effectively owning just the three major public‑cloud businesses (AWS, Azure, GCP) would outperform owning the rest of the market.
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Explanation
The prediction specifies a five‑year horizon starting from around the podcast release date of June 21, 2025. That window runs approximately until June 21, 2030. As of today (November 30, 2025), only a little over five months of that period have elapsed, far short of the full five‑year horizon required to judge whether a portfolio concentrated in AWS, Azure (Microsoft), and GCP (Google) has outperformed the rest of the market. Because the prediction is explicitly long‑dated and we are still early in the evaluation period, it cannot yet be determined whether it is right or wrong.