Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
Friedberg predicts that Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a sentence in the hundreds of years (a very long nominal sentence) and will effectively spend the rest of his life in prison.
I agree over on 30. Yeah, I think, I think I said 35. I think it's going to be a hundred multiple, hundreds of years sentence. And he'll be gone for life.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced in U.S. federal court on March 28, 2024, to 25 years in prison, far below the “hundreds of years” term Friedberg predicted. (theguardian.com) Under federal rules and the Bureau of Prisons’ current calculations, he is expected to serve a bit over 20 years, with a projected release date in December 2044 after good-conduct credits and other adjustments. (washingtonpost.com) Bankman-Fried was in his early 30s at sentencing, so a 25-year term with projected release in his early 50s is neither a sentence in the hundreds of years nor an effective life sentence. Appeals are ongoing, but there is no realistic path evident in the record or current reporting toward a “hundreds of years” sentence replacing the 25-year term. (ft.com) Therefore, Friedberg’s prediction that SBF would receive “hundreds of years” and be “gone for life” has not come true and is contradicted by the actual sentencing and projected release timeline.