Using the Federal Reserve’s official DGS30 series (30‑year constant‑maturity Treasury, daily), the yield on January 31, 2025 was 4.76%. Over the subsequent months it rose but peaked at 5.08% on May 22, 2025, never reaching the ~5.5% level Friedberg relayed. After that peak, the yield trended lower, standing around 4.64% by November 26, 2025, well below both the 5%+ highs and the 5.5% target. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

Contemporaneous market coverage describes this same move as the 30‑year yield surging a bit above 5%—around 5.08–5.09%—its highest close since 2023, again with no mention of it approaching 5.5%. (barrons.com) Because the cycle has clearly seen a rise and then a material decline without ever touching ~5.5%, Friedberg’s quoted prediction that the 30‑year yield would go to about 5.5% “before it goes down” did not come true.