Public policy has in fact moved toward the outcome Friedberg described: a forced spin‑out of TikTok’s U.S. operations into a U.S.-controlled entity with ByteDance reduced to a small, largely passive stake.

Key facts:

• In April 2024, Congress passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which requires ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a nationwide ban. The Supreme Court upheld this sale‑or‑ban law in January 2025, cementing divestiture as the required policy path unless TikTok exits the U.S. entirely. (macrumors.com)
• On September 25, 2025, the White House issued an executive order (“Saving TikTok While Protecting National Security”) blessing a qualified divestiture: TikTok’s U.S. app will be operated by a new U.S.-based joint venture that is majority‑owned and controlled by U.S. persons, with ByteDance and other “foreign adversary” entities holding under 20% combined. The order specifies that algorithms, code operations, and U.S. user data will be under the control of the U.S. venture and monitored by U.S. “trusted security partners.” (whitehouse.gov)
• Reporting on the deal structure (Reuters, Guardian, Washington Post and others) is consistent: an Oracle/Silver Lake/a16z‑led U.S. consortium will control roughly 65–80% of TikTok U.S., while ByteDance’s equity stake is capped below 20%. The new company is U.S.-incorporated, with a seven‑member board where six seats go to Americans and one to ByteDance, giving governance and control clearly to U.S. interests. (reuters.com)
• U.S. officials and deal summaries emphasize that ByteDance will be a passive minority investor with no operational control. Algorithms are licensed as IP but are to be run, retrained, and monitored on U.S. soil under U.S. security oversight, and all U.S. data must reside on Oracle‑run U.S. infrastructure. (reuters.com)
• Financial reporting indicates ByteDance is expected to receive around 50% of TikTok U.S. profits via a mix of its sub‑20% equity stake and licensing/profit‑sharing arrangements, which critics say makes the break less than “clean” even though voting control and governance lie with U.S. shareholders and directors. (chinastrategy.org)

How this maps to the prediction:

• Correct: The U.S. policy outcome is to force a spin‑out/divestiture of TikTok’s U.S. operations rather than a straight ban, and to place majority equity ownership and governance control in U.S. hands. That is exactly what the 2024 law and the 2025 executive order implement.
• Correct in spirit but not literal: ByteDance is reduced to a sub‑20% minority stake with one of seven board seats and no operational control, which makes it effectively a constrained, passive investor. However, its shares are not formally non‑voting; it retains limited voting rights and a board seat, plus significant profit participation via licensing.

Overall, the central thesis of Friedberg’s call—that U.S. policy would most likely force TikTok into a U.S.-controlled spin‑out with ByteDance left holding only a small, constrained stake while Americans hold majority ownership and governance—has played out. The main inaccuracy is the specific detail that ByteDance’s remaining equity would be wholly non‑voting, which turned out to be only partly true (practically passive, but not legally non‑voting). Hence the prediction is best characterized as right on the core outcome, with minor structural details off.