ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 01:15:56Right
politicsgovernment
Within the next few months from this January 31, 2025 episode (i.e., by roughly April–May 2025), there will be an aggressive wave of attempted federal spending cuts initiated by the DOGE/Trump administration, followed by significant court challenges that determine which cuts require new legislation, after which the administration will begin pushing those cuts through Congress.
I think we should expect a big whirlwind of cutting in the next couple of months, or an attempt to the courts will adjudicate what needs to be legislated, and then they're going to go to Congress and start to try and get some of these cuts in.View on YouTube
Explanation

Friedberg forecast three linked steps: (1) an aggressive wave of DOGE/Trump spending cuts within the next few months, (2) court fights that clarify what the executive can and cannot cut unilaterally, and (3) a shift toward pushing cuts through Congress.

  1. Whirlwind of cutting: After Trump’s January 20, 2025 order creating DOGE, the administration rapidly rolled out mass layoffs, workforce‑optimization orders, contract cancellations and grant terminations across many agencies in February–April 2025, including large reductions at HHS, Education, HUD, VA, IRS and others. (en.wikipedia.org) That fits a fast, aggressive attempt to cut spending of exactly the kind he described.

  2. Courts adjudicating limits: Starting on January 20, 2025, dozens of lawsuits challenged DOGE and related executive orders for impoundment of appropriated funds, dismantling USAID, and large‑scale reductions in force. (en.wikipedia.org) On May 9 and May 30, 2025, the AFGE v. Trump case produced a TRO and then a Ninth Circuit ruling that the president lacks authority to direct broad government‑wide RIFs and reorganization without congressional authorization, explicitly drawing a line between what can be done by executive order and what requires Congress. (clearinghouse.net)

  3. Turn to Congress: As these legal concerns mounted, reporting describes the White House preparing formal rescission requests under the Impoundment Control Act and sending Congress a package to cancel roughly $9.3 billion in funding for PBS, NPR and State Department accounts, and then advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act with over a trillion dollars in targeted spending cuts through the House beginning in late April and May 2025. (cbpp.org)

Taken together, within a few months of the January 31 episode there was an aggressive cutting drive, major court rulings on its legality, and an ensuing push for legislative cuts, matching his prediction in substance and timing.