Evidence strongly supports Friedberg’s prediction that the spike in cocoa prices would lead major chocolate makers to shrink products and raise effective prices, with consumers seeing smaller and more expensive chocolate.

• Cocoa price spike: Cocoa futures roughly tripled in 2024, at points hitting around $10,000 per metric ton—far above prior norms—creating intense cost pressure on chocolate manufacturers.(benzinga.com)
• Early concrete shrinkflation tied to cocoa: Reporting in March 2024 noted that Mars had already reduced the size of its standard Galaxy bar by 10 grams while keeping the price the same, explicitly in response to soaring cocoa costs.(dairynews.today) Similar moves were later documented for Mondelez’s Cadbury Freddo multipacks, which were cut from five to four bars while the price stayed at £1.40, again justified by sharply higher cocoa and other input costs.(thescottishsun.co.uk)
• Size cuts and price hikes across big manufacturers: By late 2024–2025, major brands including Nestlé and Mondelez were reported to have reduced product sizes, raised prices, and in some cases lowered cocoa content in response to the cocoa crisis, with Christmas and everyday chocolate described as noticeably more expensive despite smaller packs.(thetimes.com) Analyses of the confectionery sector similarly describe strategies of shrinkflation (smaller packs at same price) and skimpflation (less cocoa per product) as industry‑wide responses to high cocoa costs.(foodprocessing.com.au)
• Consumers seeing smaller, costlier chocolate on shelves within months: Halloween 2024 coverage in Canada and North America notes that fun‑size chocolate bars and Halloween candy boxes contained fewer or smaller pieces than before, with cost per item up 5–10% versus the prior year, explicitly framed as shrinkflation amid sharply higher cocoa prices.(retail-insider.com) A Wells Fargo/industry analysis on the 2024 Halloween season likewise highlighted that record cocoa prices were leading companies such as Hershey, Nestlé, and Mars to reduce chocolate content, rely more on fillers, and send smaller quantities of chocolate per bag while keeping sticker prices similar—classic shrinkflation visible to shoppers.(fooddive.com)

While some analysts emphasized that the steepest retail price impact would arrive in late 2024 and into 2025, these reports show that within months of March 2024 consumers were indeed encountering smaller chocolate products and higher effective prices from major brands, driven by the cocoa price spike. That matches the substance of Friedberg’s prediction.