I think it's the first time you could probably argue that you could go short the S&P and pick a couple of winners...you could start to see category killers emerge out of the S&P.View on YouTube
The prediction is explicitly about “the coming years” of the AI transition, implying a multi‑year horizon for evaluating whether a long/short strategy (short S&P 500, long a few emerging AI “category killers”) outperforms simple passive S&P 500 exposure.
The episode containing this remark was released on June 21, 2025.(tapesearch.com) As of today, November 30, 2025, less than one year has passed, which is well short of a reasonable interpretation of “years” (at least ~2–3 years). In addition, the prediction does not specify:
- which exact AI “category killer” stocks to hold,
- the position sizing and rebalancing rules,
- or the precise evaluation window.
Because (1) the stated timeframe has not elapsed, and (2) the strategy is too loosely defined to test rigorously so far, there is not enough information or elapsed time to determine whether Friedberg’s claim about this strategy being unusually attractive and likely to outperform the S&P 500 has proven correct or incorrect.
So the status as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”.