Reasoning about the prediction

• Timeframe: Friedberg’s statement is explicitly about “this decade” (the 2020s). As of today (29 Nov 2025), we are only midway through the decade, so the full time window for the prediction has not elapsed.
• Claim content: The prediction has several components:
  1. Bioengineered/synthetic foods will disrupt major commodity food markets (i.e., large-scale impact on core commodities like meat, dairy, eggs, etc.).
  2. This will happen within the 2020s.
  3. Products will be mass‑market, look/taste/feel the same as conventional foods.
  4. They will be cheaper and more sustainably produced.

What we know as of 2025

• Alternative protein growth but small share: Global sales of alternative proteins (plant-based, fermentation-based, cultivated) have grown meaningfully, but they still represent a small single‑digit percentage of the overall meat and dairy markets and have not yet disrupted global commodity markets in the sense of materially displacing conventional production or significantly changing benchmark commodity prices.
• Price and scale limitations: Most plant-based meat and precision‑fermented dairy products remain at price parity or more expensive than conventional products in most markets, and cultivated meat is largely not yet mass‑market due to regulatory and cost constraints. They are available in select restaurants and limited retail channels rather than at commodity scale.
• Sustainability and sensory parity: Some products (e.g., certain plant‑based and precision‑fermented dairy) approach or claim parity in taste/texture with conventional products and may have lower environmental footprints, but this has not yet translated into a broad, commodity‑level shift.

Because:

• The prediction’s deadline is the entire 2020s, and
• As of 2025 the full outcome (large‑scale commodity disruption by cheaper, mass‑market bioengineered foods) has clearly not happened yet, but could still occur later in the decade,

we cannot yet conclusively say whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong.

Conclusion

• The correct assessment as of 29 Nov 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”: there are early signs and partial progress in the direction Friedberg described, but the key conditions (broad commodity disruption, cheaper mass‑market bioengineered foods) have not been fully met, and the prediction’s timeframe has not expired.