The prediction had two parts: (1) many competing models, including open source, would proliferate, and (2) open‑source models would gain a significant competitive advantage and effectively ‘win’ over tightly controlled proprietary models. The first part is clearly happening: surveys and market analyses show that more than half of organizations now use open‑source AI tools or models alongside proprietary ones, and open‑source ecosystems like Llama, Qwen, Mistral, and DeepSeek are a major driver of innovation and cost savings.(mckinsey.com) However, the second, stronger claim that open source would win in the market has not materialized by late 2025. A recent study (Nagle & Yue) finds open models account for only about 20% of usage and roughly 4% of AI-market revenue, despite similar performance and much lower operating cost, indicating that revenue and overall usage are still dominated by closed models.(itpro.com) Enterprise data from Menlo Ventures and related analyses show proprietary providers like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google now command the vast majority of enterprise LLM workloads, with Anthropic at ~32%, OpenAI ~25%, Google ~20%, while open‑source models (largely Llama and a few others) serve only about 13% of corporate workloads and that share has recently declined.(finance.yahoo.com) Commentaries on the 2025 enterprise landscape explicitly note that open‑source adoption has plateaued or fallen in production use, with organizations sticking to closed models due to performance gaps, integration complexity, and compliance concerns, even though they recognize open source’s cost advantages.(itpro.com) In short, while dissatisfaction with heavily filtered models did help spur a diverse, vibrant open‑source ecosystem, the market outcome so far is a hybrid world where closed models dominate spend and mission‑critical workloads; open source has grown and is important, but it has not secured the clear competitive market win the prediction envisioned.