Donald Trump did not win the 2020 U.S. presidential election; Joe Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote, securing 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, with the result effectively settled in the days following November 3–4, 2020. This outcome is confirmed by official and media tallies of the certified results.

Since friedberg’s statement on election night—“the Treasury markets and the S&P futures are telling me that Donald Trump’s going to win”—was clearly a forward-looking prediction about the final election outcome, and the final outcome was that Trump lost, the prediction is incorrect.