ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:50:12Inconclusive
scienceclimate
Once Ohalo’s boosted‑breeding crops reach commercial trials and deployment, fertilizer required per pound of harvested output will decrease significantly compared with current crop systems, due to improved efficiency despite higher biomass.
Fertilizer usually scales with biomass. But these sorts of systems should be more efficient. So fertilizer use per pound produced should go down significantly. As we get to commercial trials with all this stuff.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, there is not enough real‑world data to determine whether Ohalo’s Boosted Breeding crops actually use significantly less fertilizer per pound of harvested output in commercial settings.

Key points:

  1. Stage of deployment: After unveiling Boosted Breeding in May 2024, Ohalo reported large yield gains (50–100%+) in early internal trials, but described the platform as moving toward commercial trials and looking for partners, not yet in broad commercial deployment.(agtechnavigator.com) A June 2024 Freethink piece explicitly says Ohalo is preparing for commercial trials and seeking partners.(freethink.com) A 2025 job posting for a "Field Technology Development & Agronomy Lead" to support "early adopter farmers" with true potato seed further indicates they are still building out field systems and protocols rather than operating at mature commercial scale.(s32.getro.com)

  2. Claims vs. measured fertilizer data: Friedberg and Ohalo repeatedly claim that Boosted Breeding will enable more food per acre with less fertilizer per unit output, echoing the prediction.(freethink.com) However, public materials (press releases, interviews, product pages) focus on yield, disease resistance, true seed, and reduced pesticide use; they do not provide quantified fertilizer‑input data (e.g., N/P/K rates or fertilizer per ton of yield) from commercial or large‑scale field trials.(prnewswire.com) No independent agronomic studies or multi‑season commercial trial results reporting fertilizer use per unit yield for Boosted crops appear in the literature or trade press.

  3. Timeline for full commercial products: The only clearly dated commercial roadmap item with regulatory detail, the FruitionOne self‑fertile Nonpareil almond variety, has trial orchards underway with first commercial deliveries not expected until 2027, again suggesting the broader product portfolio is still pre‑mass‑deployment.(prnewswire.com)

Because:

  • Boosted Breeding crops are only in early adopter / preparatory commercial‑trial phases, and
  • There is no published evidence yet on actual fertilizer applied per pound of harvested crop in those trials or deployments,

we cannot say whether fertilizer intensity has in fact fallen "significantly" as predicted. The prediction is therefore too early to evaluate, not clearly right or wrong at this time.