people are going to get scared again. And people if we're not kind of enforcing economic lockdown, people will go into social lockdown. Um, and we're going to revisit, uh, you know, more of the behavior we saw over the past year where people are going to be nervous to travel. Uh, people are going to be nervous to fly. People are gonna be nervous to go to restaurants.View on YouTube
Multiple data sources show that in the weeks after mid‑July 2021, a substantial share of Americans voluntarily pulled back from travel and dining as the Delta wave and breakthrough reports grew, even though there were no new broad stay‑at‑home lockdowns.
Travel & flying behavior
• A Destination Analysts survey (summarized in a Montana tourism bulletin dated August 13, 2021) reported that 54% of American travelers said the Delta variant made them less interested in traveling right now, with notable increases in trip postponements (27%) and cancellations (23%) compared with late July. Nearly half (48%) agreed that media coverage of COVID had them doubting it was safe to travel, and fewer than half considered flying on an airplane safe. (content.govdelivery.com)
• The same research series found that by early August, optimism about the near‑term pandemic trajectory had crashed about 40% since early June, and travel intent had dropped from its early‑summer highs, which analysts explicitly linked to the Delta surge. (qatar-tribune.com)
• Southwest Airlines, in an August 11, 2021 regulatory update, said that Delta‑related developments had caused negative effects on August and September revenue trends, undermining its earlier expectation of a profitable Q3. The article discussing this cites survey data that more than 54% of Americans said the Delta variant made them less interested in traveling right now, reinforcing that there was a demand‑side, traveler‑driven pullback rather than only regulatory limits. (dallasnews.com)
Restaurant dining behavior
• An early‑August 2021 OpenTable/Booking Holdings release noted that U.S. dining demand was down 13% compared with just one month earlier, with significant declines in cities like Minneapolis, Seattle, and New York. This compares July to early August—precisely the “weeks following mid‑July” window. (bookingholdings.com)
• A QSR Magazine analysis, drawing on National Restaurant Association survey work, reported that, amid Delta’s rise, 19% of adults said they had stopped going out to restaurants and 9% said they had cancelled existing plans in recent weeks because of COVID trends. The same piece cited OpenTable data showing dining down 16% in San Francisco compared with July and much further below 2019 levels—clear evidence of a voluntary pullback. (qsrmagazine.com)
Lack of new formal lockdowns, but rising Delta/breakthrough fears
• By early August 2021, the Delta variant accounted for roughly 99% of U.S. cases and drove a large summer wave, including rising concern about breakthrough infections, but the U.S. did not re‑enter nationwide economic lockdowns. Restrictions were more targeted—e.g., New York City’s proof‑of‑vaccination rule for indoor dining announced August 3 and effective August 16, with enforcement only starting in September. (en.wikipedia.org)
Putting this together: within a few weeks of mid‑July 2021, measurable shares of Americans reported being more hesitant to travel or fly, showed increased postponements/cancellations of trips, and reduced in‑person restaurant dining, in response to the Delta surge and associated fears. These shifts occurred largely through voluntary behavior changes and sentiment‑driven pullbacks rather than broad re‑imposed lockdowns. That matches Friedberg’s prediction that people would “get scared again,” go into a kind of social lockdown, and become nervous about traveling, flying, and going to restaurants. Hence, the prediction is best classified as right.