Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
politicsconflict
Russia will not ultimately lose the war in Ukraine to any alternative intervention or opposing force on the ground; Russia will find a way to avoid outright military defeat in Ukraine because of its nuclear deterrent and overall military capability.
any sort of assumption that leads to our belief that an alternative intervention or some other force can ultimately win against Russia? Uh, is is completely false because Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads... I wouldn't kind of take any of this stuff, um, that Russia is going to lose a war, uh, you know, a war on the ground in the Ukraine. I mean, at the end of the day, they've got the ultimate trump card.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of 30 November 2025, the Russo‑Ukrainian war is still ongoing and there has been no clear, final military outcome.

Russia has not suffered an outright military defeat in Ukraine. It continues to occupy large areas of Ukrainian territory and is conducting active offensive operations, including the Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Novopavlivka, and Kupiansk offensives, as well as territorial gains such as the capture of Kostiantynivka in Sumy Oblast. (en.wikipedia.org) Major Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other cities also continue, indicating that Russia’s forces remain capable of sustained large‑scale military action rather than having been defeated on the ground. (theguardian.com)

At the same time, there is no settled peace deal that locks in the current situation or formally ends the war. Ukrainian and U.S. officials are discussing potential ceasefire or peace frameworks, including proposals to freeze the conflict along current front lines, but both Russia and Ukraine have not yet agreed to a final settlement. (euronews.com) Because the ultimate outcome of the war (including whether Russia will eventually be forced into a clear military defeat or compelled withdrawal) is still unknown, the claim that Russia will not ultimately lose the war in Ukraine cannot yet be judged as either right or wrong.