Evidence since late 2021 supports Friedberg’s prediction on both parts:

1. Ongoing evolution with new notable variants
   After Omicron’s emergence in late 2021, SARS‑CoV‑2 has continued to generate notable new subvariants and lineages: Omicron sublineages such as BA.2.75, BF.7, BQ.1, XBB, XBB.1.5, EG.5, JN.1, and newer variants under monitoring (e.g., NB.1.8.1, LF.7 reported in 2025) have been documented over 2022–2025. These are tracked by WHO and genomic surveillance networks, demonstrating ongoing evolutionary change and repeated emergence of notable variants over time rather than the virus stabilizing or disappearing.(en.wikipedia.org)(journals.lww.com)(timesofindia.indiatimes.com) While the cadence is more frequent than once per year, the core claim that variants would keep emerging (rather than the virus fading away) has clearly held.

2. Endemic, ongoing disease rather than eradication
   In May 2023, WHO declared that COVID‑19 no longer constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and is now an “established and ongoing health issue,” signaling a shift to long‑term management rather than eradication efforts.(paho.org)(who.int) WHO Europe explicitly notes the virus is likely to remain for many years, “if not forever,” consistent with endemic circulation.(who.int) CDC’s 2025 respiratory virus guidance states that COVID‑19 is no longer the acute emergency it once was and that its health impacts now increasingly resemble other respiratory viral illnesses such as influenza and RSV, justifying unified guidance for these seasonal respiratory viruses.(cdc.gov)(cdc.gov) Independent reporting and expert commentary similarly describe COVID‑19 as having become a more routine, seasonal‑like respiratory infection in many countries, with patterns comparable to flu and RSV, though still more severe for high‑risk groups.(washingtonpost.com)(lemonde.fr) No credible source suggests SARS‑CoV‑2 has been eradicated or is on track for eradication.

Given (a) continuing appearance of new, noteworthy variants and (b) the broad scientific and public‑health consensus that COVID‑19 has transitioned into an ongoing, often seasonal respiratory virus rather than being eradicated, Friedberg’s prediction is substantively correct. The only minor mismatch is that variant emergence has been more frequent than “every year,” but that does not undercut the directional accuracy of the forecast.