Friedberg @ 01:19:08Wrong
climatescience
Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will cause the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (the 2023 season, given the July 2023 recording date) to be the most active hurricane season on record in terms of storm activity severity or count.
We were talking about what to talk about, as you guys know. I said, hey, we could talk about the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. That's likely going to drive the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen this coming season.View on YouTube
Explanation
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was above normal and historically active, but it was not the most active season on record by any standard.
Key 2023 stats:
- 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, ACE ≈ 148.2.
- This tied 1933 for 20 named storms, but overall ranked only 4th for most named storms in a season. (en.wikipedia.org)
Record benchmarks:
- Most named storms on record: 2020 with 30 named storms (14 hurricanes, 7 major) – explicitly described by NOAA and WMO as the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of total storms. (ncei.noaa.gov)
- Highest ACE on record: 1933 with ACE ≈ 259, well above 2023’s ~148.2. (en.wikipedia.org)
NOAA and WMO summaries of 2023 repeatedly characterize it as above-normal and note that the 20 named storms make it the fourth-most-named-storms season since 1950, not the first.(nesdis.noaa.gov) Thus, although Friedberg was directionally right that record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures helped produce a busy season, the specific prediction that 2023 would be "the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen" (i.e., the most active on record in storm count or severity) did not come true.