Friedberg’s prediction has effectively played out so far.

1. Many competitors to Google’s “one‑box” / search-results model have emerged.

   • OpenAI launched ChatGPT Search (originally SearchGPT) in 2024 as an AI search engine explicitly positioned as a direct competitor to Google, Perplexity, and Bing, combining web search with LLM-generated answers and citations. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Perplexity AI has grown into a well‑funded AI search engine that mixes its own index with LLMs; a 2025 report notes it raising a large new round at a multibillion‑dollar valuation and being cited in the U.S. Google antitrust case as evidence that AI search rivals are real competitors. (barrons.com)
   • Microsoft integrated OpenAI models into Bing and then Copilot, using generative AI features to differentiate Bing search and contributing to noticeable Bing share gains in the U.S. (proceedinnovative.com)
   • Google’s own Gemini, plus other AI chatbots with built‑in web access, have created a crowded field of LLM‑centric interfaces that users can use instead of traditional Google search for many information tasks. (techradar.com)
     Collectively, these confirm the “coming years” have indeed produced multiple serious, LLM-based competitors to Google’s classic results-page paradigm.

2. Google’s core search product is clearly at risk of radical disruption, even if it has not yet been displaced.

   • Google has overhauled Search by rolling out AI Overviews (formerly SGE) worldwide and later AI Mode, which can replace the traditional list of links with comprehensive, Gemini-generated answers. These AI summaries can dominate most of the visible screen and are explicitly framed by Google as a response to generative‑AI competition like ChatGPT. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • The new AI overlays are materially changing traffic flows and business models on the web: companies like Chegg and publishers such as Penske Media have sued Google, alleging that AI Overviews cannibalize their traffic and fundamentally alter search economics. (washingtonpost.com)
   • Industry coverage describes Google as “disrupting itself” to beat OpenAI, reorganizing around Gemini and embedding it directly into Search—behavior consistent with a company that sees its core product as under existential threat from new technology. (businessinsider.com)

3. At the same time, Google’s dominance shows the disruption is still in progress, not complete.

   • As of 2025, Google still processes roughly ~90% of global web searches, far ahead of Bing and all other rivals, and Alphabet’s financial results and market cap indicate that search remains extraordinarily profitable. (mettevo.com)
     This means Google’s search business has not yet been radically overturned in market share or revenue terms, but it is facing credible AI-driven challenges that are forcing a deep redesign of how search works.

Because Friedberg’s claim was that (a) LLM/chat interfaces would generate many competitors to Google’s search-results model, and (b) Google’s core search engine would be at risk of radical disruption—not that it would already be fully disrupted by 2025—current evidence supports his prediction. The competitors and the strategic risk to Google’s core product are real and widely acknowledged, even though Google still dominates usage today.