ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 01:20:46Wrong
conflictpolitics
Between the recording and airing of this episode (late September 2024), Israel’s military incursion into Lebanon will significantly expand. There is a non‑trivial chance (he estimates >30–40%) that before the November 2024 US election, this conflict will escalate into a full‑blown multinational war in the Middle East involving multiple regional states.
I think there's going to be a big war. I think by the time this show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger. It's going to escalate. And by next week, we could be in a full blown multinational war in the Middle East. And if I am, you know, a betting man, I would bet that the odds are, you know, more than 30, 40% that this happens before the election, that this this conflict in the Middle East escalates.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction has two parts:

  1. Short‑term escalation into Lebanon (by the time the show aired)
    This did occur. On 23–30 September 2024, Israel launched Operation Northern Arrows, carrying out more than 1,700 airstrikes across Lebanon—over a 125% increase in Israeli strikes compared with August—killing hundreds and displacing large numbers of civilians. This marked a sharp expansion from earlier, more limited cross‑border fire. (en.wikipedia.org) On 30 September/1 October 2024 Israel then began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, formally described as the 2024 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, confirming that the incursion had indeed “gotten bigger” in the days around airing. (downloads.regulations.gov) So the near‑term escalation call was accurate.

  2. Probability (>30–40%) of a full‑blown multinational Middle East war before the November 2024 US election
    Here the specific scenario he highlighted did not happen:

    • The Lebanon front evolved into a large Israel–Hezbollah war plus an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, but contemporaneous descriptions frame it as the 2024 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the Israel–Hezbollah conflict—not as a multi‑state regional war. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • Although Iran did launch direct missile/drone attacks on Israel in 2024 and multiple Iran‑aligned militias (in Iraq, Syria, Yemen) were active, mainstream assessments consistently spoke of the risk of a broader regional war rather than a realized multi‑state war, and noted that these conflicts had not escalated into wider regional wars by late 2024. (streetinsider.com)
    • Instead of widening into a multinational war before the US election (5 November 2024), the Israel–Hezbollah war was halted shortly afterward by a US‑ and France‑mediated Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement signed 26 November and effective 27 November 2024, explicitly aimed at ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon. (en.wikipedia.org) No Arab state (e.g., Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) or Iran entered into open conventional war with Israel in that period, nor did the US.

Because the core forecasted outcome—“a full blown multinational war in the Middle East” triggered by the Israel–Lebanon front before the 2024 US election—did not occur, the prediction is judged wrong for scoring purposes, even though one component (rapid escalation of Israel’s Lebanon operation between recording and airing) was correct and his stated probability (30–40%) was not a categorical claim of certainty.