Friedberg @ 01:13:12Inconclusive
marketsai
In the next five years, public equity markets—starting with the Mag 7 and extending to the broader S&P 500—will exhibit unusually high dispersion between winning and losing stocks driven by AI adoption, making it an exceptionally attractive period for active stock pickers.
for me as a stock picker, right. I think over the next five years, I couldn't think of a more interesting time where we're actually going to see dispersion between winners and losers.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction explicitly covers “the next five years” from June 21, 2025, i.e., roughly through mid‑2030. As of today (November 30, 2025), less than a year of that five‑year window has elapsed.
Even if we could already observe some dispersion between AI winners and laggards in the Mag 7 or the broader S&P 500, that would not be enough to validate the claim that:
- This entire five‑year period is unusually good for active stock pickers, and
- The key driver of that persistent dispersion is AI adoption.
Both points require multi‑year realized performance data (active manager excess returns, cross‑sectional dispersion, sector/industry attribution to AI themes, etc.) that simply do not exist yet for the full horizon. Because the evaluation date (mid‑2030) has not arrived, the prediction cannot be judged right or wrong at this time.