As of November 30, 2025, there isn’t enough evidence yet to say whether this decade‑scale prediction is right or wrong.

What has happened so far

• The original Las Vegas Sphere opened in 2023 at a cost of about $2.3 billion, consistent with Friedberg’s reference point for the first unit’s capex. (theverge.com)
• Sphere Entertainment’s CEO James Dolan has told analysts the company is designing smaller “mini‑Spheres” with ~5,000 seats that would be “much cheaper” and faster to build than the Las Vegas original, directly matching the idea of scaled‑down, lower‑capex versions. However, no specific locations, budgets, or build timelines have been announced yet. (theverge.com)
• The only confirmed additional full‑scale Sphere so far is a planned venue in Abu Dhabi, structured as a licensed franchise. Abu Dhabi’s tourism authority will fund construction; the venue is expected to be similar in scale to Las Vegas, and there are ambitions for further Spheres in the Middle East and North Africa, but no other concrete sites have broken ground. (reviewjournal.com)
• Plans for a second large Sphere in London were formally withdrawn after political and planning opposition, removing one major prospective international location. (euronews.com)
• Other companies (not Sphere Entertainment) are indeed building smaller immersive dome venues—for example, Cosm’s 65,000–70,000 sq ft domed venues in Los Angeles (open) and Dallas/Atlanta (in progress)—which are clearly lower‑capex than a $2.3B mega‑arena, but these are still a handful of sites, not a global IMAX‑style network. (prnewswire.com)
• Analysts remain skeptical about Sphere’s profitability and scalability, noting high losses and slow, costly expansion, which suggests uncertainty about whether a large global rollout will ultimately happen. (barrons.com)

Why the prediction is still undecided

• Friedberg’s claim included two main components: (1) smaller, much cheaper Sphere‑like venues (on the order of a few hundred million dollars) would emerge, and (2) these would be rolled out widely worldwide over “the coming decade or so,” analogous to IMAX proliferation.
• By late 2025, the direction of travel is partially consistent with the first part (design work on mini‑Spheres and independent smaller domes like Cosm), but the scale and density of global deployment are nowhere near an IMAX‑like footprint yet—nor would we reasonably expect them to be only ~2 years into a 10‑year horizon.
• There is also no clear falsification: Sphere Entertainment is still pursuing a global network (starting with Abu Dhabi and MENA rights), and other immersive dome operators are expanding, so a broad rollout could still materialize later in the 2020s or early 2030s.

Given the explicitly long time frame (“over the coming decade or so”), and the fact that both success (substantial rollout) and failure (stalled expansion) remain plausible, the correct assessment as of 2025 is that the prediction’s ultimate accuracy is inconclusive rather than clearly right or wrong.